Policy Briefs

Demographic Change, Migration, and the Future of Yorùbá Majority in Yorùbáland

This paper examines internal migration, fertility differentials, and long-term population projections in South-West Nigeria, with specific focus on the Yorùbá population and migrant ethnic groups. Using Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data (2008–2018), it demonstrates that sustained inward migration and higher fertility rates among non-Yorùbá groups(particularly Hausa/Fulani)are driving a major demographic shift. Projections indicate a significant decline in the Yoruba share of the population and a potential majority reversal within the next four decades. The study provides empirical grounding for policy debates on demographic sustainability, political representation, cultural continuity, and migration governance in Yorùbáland, and serves as a strategic resource for forward-looking regional and ethnic policy formulation.